26 Jun How the Socceroos can progress at the 2018 World Cup

How’s your nerves?!

Following the Socceroos’ 1-1 draw against Denmark, they have given themselves an outside chance of qualifying for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Round of 16.
The clash with Peru (at midnight AEST) is a must-win for Australia if they want to advance to the knock-out stages for the first time since 2006 as anything but the three points will mean elimination from the tournament.

But maximum points isn’t the only determining factor, with Bert van Marwijk’s men needing a big favour from France in their match against the Danes to secure second position in Group C.

Here are all the permutations in what shapes as a dramatic night of World Cup football.

In the event of an Australian win and a Danish defeat, the two teams would finish level on four points.

Goal difference would then come into play. Australia are currently minus-one, Denmark plus-one, so the Socceroos would need a swing of three goals to progress.

A swing of just two (for example, a 1-0 win for Australia and a 1-0 defeat for Denmark) would leave the two teams level.

The next criterion would be the number of goals scored by each. Both teams have scored twice in the tournament so far.

So if Denmark were to lose by a margin of one goal but still score more than Australia (for example, a 3-2 defeat for Denmark while the Socceroos won 1-0), the Danes would go through.

If the teams still could not be separated, the next criterion (the result when they played each other) would not help, since they drew 1-1. Then their disciplinary records would be assessed, as per Fifa’s rules:

Each yellow card: minus one point

Second yellow leading to a red: minus four points

Straight red card: minus four points

Yellow card and straight red card: minus five points

Four Denmark players have been booked so far this tournament, to Australia’s three. Neither side has had a player sent off.

In the unlikely event the teams still could not be separated, lots will be drawn to see who progresses to the Round of 16!

The team that finishes second in Group C will play the winner of Group D. Croatia currently top that group, and barring a heavy defeat to Iceland in their final game – coupled with a big win for Nigeria over Argentina – will qualify as group winners.

Australia’s clash against Peru kicks-off tomorrow morning from 12am AEST at the Fisht Stadium in Sochi.